With traditional, live, broadcast television becoming a narrower and narrower market; the last product Americans are consuming live on TV with any consistency is sports. In the arena of live sports football commands the largest and most predictable audience. How this impacts all college sports is often not understood but the simple answer is football pays the bills. More specifically, football broadcasts pay the bills. These massive TV deals, and now streaming, are drafted at the conference level. With less seats at the traditional TV deal table this last round of deals appears to had room for only 4 conferences leaving the Pac-12 without one.
First USC and UCLA opted to bounce to the Big Ten conference. This caused Arizona and Arizona state to dip over to the Big 12. Utah and Colorado quickly joined them which caused Washington and the University of Oregon to scramble to the Big Ten. Desperate to get into a conference, given their lackluster football records in recent years, Stanford and Cal begged the ACC to take them even offering to not take TV revenue.
This has left Oregon State and Washington State standing alone in the Pac-2 starting in the 2024-25 school year. The NCAA will allow the entity, called the Pac-12 to exist for 2 years without having to go through the process to create a brand new conference. Should the Pac be reborn in that time it will maintain it’s FBS status.
In the past the Pac-12 has been the Pac 10 and the Pac 8, but two schools does not a conference make. So what happens to the athletic programs of Oregon State and Washington State?
What we know about the Pac-12 2024 – 2026
Football
The OSU and WSU football teams will play in the Mountain West, whose current TV deal expires after the 2025-26 season. This is likely the reason attempts to attract Mountain West schools failed when the Pac-12 tried to replace UCLA and USC after they announced their departure, as the schools did not want to incur buyout penalties. This arrangement works because the Mountain West is an FBS-level conference, and OSU/WSU will not receive a TV share during the two seasons.
Other Sports
Twelve other sports at Oregon State and Washington State will be ‘Affiliate Members’ of the West Coast Conference. It’s unclear why these 12 programs, or at least basketball, which is another tier 1 sport, are not joining football in the Mountain West, so we can only speculate. Some believe it is because the Mountain West has been rising in the basketball ranks recently, and there is a desire not to disrupt that momentum.
However, the WCC has a history of being a strong basketball conference, anchored by Gonzaga in both men’s and women’s basketball. In the men’s category, the Cougars and Beavers are likely to integrate well into the WCC, but the women’s teams might dominate the conference if they retain their players, considering the Pac-12 has been one of the most competitive and prestigious women’s basketball conferences for some time. The Pac-12 could potentially secure seven bids in 2024, with the Lady Beavers contending for a 2 or 3 seed in March, and Washington State having been ranked in the top 15 before a season-ending injury to their lead scorer.
What happens to the Pac-12 after 2026?
At this point, nobody knows, even insiders. OSU and WSU have taken control of the Pac-12 conference as it is, meaning they will make the decision on what happens with the brand and assets going forward. Remember, the conference will still exist for two years.
Theory 1: The Mountain West becomes the Pac-12
The predominant theory is, after the two years when the Mountain West TV deal ends, Oregon State and Washington State will join the Mountain West and the Mountain West will become the Pac-12. Many think this because the Pac-12 brand is much more valuable than the Mountain West brand.
Theory 2: The Pac 8/10/12/n re-forms with a selection of schools
With the MWC TV deal expiring it could get picked apart, lead by the Pac-2. We could see Boise State, San Jose State, UNLV, and San Diego State bail on the Mountain West. Cal and Stanford could come crawling back. We could see SMU finally get pulled into the Pac as was rumored when the Los Angeles schools announced their departures.
Theory 3: The Beavers and Cougars go their separate ways
This one hurts the most to think about; the death and burial of the west coast’s longest running, and most dominant, conference. WSU and OSU could join one of the mega-conferences, The Mountain West, The American, Conference USA, Mid-Amercan, or even the Sun Belt Conference. I think this is the least likely option.
The next two years are going to be weird that’s for sure. Especially when I think about what it will look like on game day when the Beavers women’s basketball team heads to San Diego to play in a gym that had an attendance of 631 and 314 for their last two home games and OSU saw 8,210 and 8,525 fans at their last two home contests.
Football will be less awkward as much the the MWC draws a solid crowd on Saturdays in the fall.
